I get it you’re exhausted. You might’ve bought into the hype in late 2024 or early 2025 thinking, “This is it! Bitcoin to $200K, baby!” You envisioned quitting your job, basking in passive income, and joining the elite club of early retirees. But instead? The charts look shaky. The bears are getting loud. And you’re left wondering if Goblin Town is your new permanent residence.
I’ve been there. But before you throw in the towel or start panic-selling to preserve what’s left of your capital, let’s take a breath. Step back. Zoom out. Because if you’re only watching price, you’re missing the bigger picture.
This is the bull case. My bull case. And it’s backed by macro data, not hopium.
We’re Not Even at the Peak Yet
First things first where are we in the business cycle?
According to Fidelity’s Q2 2025 report, the U.S. economy is still somewhere between mid and late-cycle expansion. Not contraction. Not recession. That’s important.
Historically, markets including Bitcoin tend to peak after the economy does. Which means this engine we’re riding? It’s still running. Maybe not full throttle, but there’s fuel in the tank.
People forget that markets often rally well into the late cycle. The big crashes the real ones usually come after growth completely dries up. We’re not there.
So, to those calling for imminent collapse: it’s not time yet. Not by a long shot.
And let’s not forget: Bitcoin doesn’t move in sync with TradFi. It front-runs it. Just as we saw in 2020–2021, Bitcoin often leads the charge and then lags a bit as equities catch up. If anything, the current pause is part of the rhythm, not a break in the melody.
The Credit Cycle Still Favors Risk
Here’s another critical signal credit is still expanding.
A May 2025 report from Lumis Sales said it plainly: credit fundamentals remain “super effing solid.” That’s not me paraphrasing that’s pretty much the direct quote. And they’re right.
Consumers are still spending. Businesses are still borrowing. And money? It’s accessible. When credit flows, risk assets like Bitcoin thrive.
We’re not in a liquidity crunch. We’re not seeing tightening that kills momentum. In fact, investor risk appetite is alive and well.
The fat lady hasn’t sung. The lights are still on. And that means there’s room real room for upside.
And if you think Bitcoin can’t benefit from loose credit because it’s “outside the system,” think again. Easy credit fuels innovation. It fuels speculation. It fuels risk-taking and Bitcoin sits squarely in that high-beta zone where capital seeks asymmetric returns.
Global M2: The Quiet Giant
Now, this part gets overlooked by most retail investors, but if you want to understand real capital flows, you have to look at global M2 the total global money supply.
When global M2 starts expanding again, that’s your cue. It’s like watching the tide come back in. Liquidity floods back into risk assets. Equity markets rise. And yes Bitcoin follows.
Right now, global M2 is stabilizing and showing early signs of growth. Historically, these are the moments where early positioning pays off in a big way.
It’s not just about sentiment. It’s about supply. And the money supply is starting to move again.
Combine that with the post-halving effect lower BTC issuance and we’re looking at a classic supply-demand imbalance forming beneath the surface. Fewer coins. More liquidity. You do the math.
Some folks think institutions got cold feet after the last correction. But behind the scenes? They’re still allocating.
Pension funds, family offices, sovereign wealth they’re not watching TikTok influencers. They’re watching macro data, credit cycles, and liquidity.
And they’re moving capital accordingly.
We’re also in a regulatory environment that, while imperfect, is getting clearer. That clarity? It invites big money. Not because they love decentralization, but because they can finally manage compliance risk.
Plus, the infrastructure is there now spot ETFs, custody solutions, insurance options, on-ramps. Bitcoin isn’t the fringe bet it once was. It’s becoming a credible asset on Bloomberg terminals and in quarterly board meetings.
And in a world increasingly uncertain geopolitically and fiscally? Bitcoin is insurance. It’s optionality. Institutions get that even if retail hasn’t caught on yet.
If You’re Feeling Shaken, That’s Normal
You’re not crazy for feeling nervous. 2024 and early 2025 have been weird. Narratives have shifted. Momentum has stuttered. And the euphoria of previous cycles hasn’t returned yet.
But this isn’t the time to abandon your strategy. This is the time to sharpen it.
Zoom out. Look at the cycles. Study the credit flows. Understand the real macro picture.
Because if you do, you’ll see what I see: the setup is still there. And when it moves, it could move fast. And here’s something worth watching: global distrust in fiat is quietly rising again.
Whether it’s inflation surprises, sovereign debt concerns, or creeping capital controls more people are beginning to realize that fiat isn’t a neutral store of value.
Bitcoin thrives in those moments. Not because it solves every problem, but because it offers one simple advantage: it’s not tied to any one system.
You don’t need to believe it replaces gold or dethrones the dollar. You just need to recognize that, in a world full of liabilities, Bitcoin is one of the few assets with no counterparty risk.
That idea alone can fuel an entire phase of capital rotation.
Final Thought: Goblin Town Isn’t Inevitable
No, this isn’t a “hop on the rocket” post.
This is a reminder that markets are driven by fundamentals more than vibes especially over time.
And the fundamentals still lean bullish. Business cycle? Still in expansion. Credit? Still flowing. M2? Slowly returning. Institutions? Still allocating.
Add to that a shrinking issuance schedule, clearer regulation, and rising fiat distrust and suddenly, this lull starts to look less like a trap and more like an opportunity.
The music hasn’t stopped. You just need to tune out the noise and listen to the rhythm.
Hold tight, stay smart, and position accordingly.
- A Platinum Crypto Academy Specialist
Hopefully, you have enjoyed today’s article. Thanks for reading! Have a fantastic day! Live from the Platinum Crypto Trading Floor.
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